Fewest Regular Season Losses

This year may be a record year for parity in the NCAA Tournament.  There has never been a tournament in which every team has had 4 or more losses.  In fact only 7 times has every team had 3 or more:

1939
Brown

1993
Arizona
Indiana
Kentucky
New Orleans

2000
Cincinnati
Stanford

2002
Cincinnati
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Western Kentucky

2003
Arizona
Kentucky

2007
Memphis
Ohio State

2009
Memphis

As of February 17, there are 5 teams remaining with 3 losses and none with 2 or fewer.  They are:

• Arkansas-Little Rock
• Hawaii
• Southern Methodist
• Villanova
• Xavier

Since Southern Methodist is ineligible for the tournament, that leaves 4 teams left that could possibly be in the tournament with 3 or fewer losses. 

According to Massey Ratings, here is the probability of each winning out (not including conference tournaments):


Villanova: (35.3% chance of winning out)
2/20: Butler - 85%
2/24: at Xavier - 55%
2/27: at Marquette - 86.5%
3/1: DePaul - 98%
3/5: Georgetown - 89%

Arkansas-Little Rock: (32.7% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Georgia State - 72.5%
2/20: at Georgia Southern - 79.5%
2/25: vs. Texas-Arlington -75%
2/27: vs. Texas State - 96%
3/1: vs. Arkansas State - 95%
3/3: at Appalachian State - 83%

Hawaii: (20.5% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Cal State-Northridge - 86.5%
2/20: at Cal-Irvine - 57%
2/25: Cal-Riverside - 94%
2/27: Cal State-Fullerton - 95%
3/3: at Cal-Davis - 88%
3/5: at Long Beach State - 53%

Xavier: (13.0% chance of winning out)
2/20: at Georgetown - 67%
2/24: Villanova - 45%
2/28: at Seton Hall - 56%
3/5: Creighton - 77%