This year may be a record year for parity in the NCAA Tournament. There has never been a tournament in which every team has had 4 or more losses. In fact only 7 times has every team had 3 or more:
1939
Brown
1993
Arizona
Indiana
Kentucky
New Orleans
2000
Cincinnati
Stanford
2002
Cincinnati
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Western Kentucky
2003
Arizona
Kentucky
2007
Memphis
Ohio State
2009
Memphis
As of February 17, there are 5 teams remaining with 3 losses and none with 2 or fewer. They are:
According to Massey Ratings, here is the probability of each winning out (not including conference tournaments):
Villanova: (35.3% chance of winning out)
2/20: Butler - 85%
2/24: at Xavier - 55%
2/27: at Marquette - 86.5%
3/1: DePaul - 98%
3/5: Georgetown - 89%
Arkansas-Little Rock: (32.7% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Georgia State - 72.5%
2/20: at Georgia Southern - 79.5%
2/25: vs. Texas-Arlington -75%
2/27: vs. Texas State - 96%
3/1: vs. Arkansas State - 95%
3/3: at Appalachian State - 83%
Hawaii: (20.5% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Cal State-Northridge - 86.5%
2/20: at Cal-Irvine - 57%
2/25: Cal-Riverside - 94%
2/27: Cal State-Fullerton - 95%
3/3: at Cal-Davis - 88%
3/5: at Long Beach State - 53%
Xavier: (13.0% chance of winning out)
2/20: at Georgetown - 67%
2/24: Villanova - 45%
2/28: at Seton Hall - 56%
3/5: Creighton - 77%
1939
Brown
1993
Arizona
Indiana
Kentucky
New Orleans
2000
Cincinnati
Stanford
2002
Cincinnati
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Western Kentucky
2003
Arizona
Kentucky
2007
Memphis
Ohio State
2009
Memphis
As of February 17, there are 5 teams remaining with 3 losses and none with 2 or fewer. They are:
- Arkansas-Little Rock
- Hawaii
- Southern Methodist
- Villanova
- Xavier
According to Massey Ratings, here is the probability of each winning out (not including conference tournaments):
Villanova: (35.3% chance of winning out)
2/20: Butler - 85%
2/24: at Xavier - 55%
2/27: at Marquette - 86.5%
3/1: DePaul - 98%
3/5: Georgetown - 89%
Arkansas-Little Rock: (32.7% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Georgia State - 72.5%
2/20: at Georgia Southern - 79.5%
2/25: vs. Texas-Arlington -75%
2/27: vs. Texas State - 96%
3/1: vs. Arkansas State - 95%
3/3: at Appalachian State - 83%
Hawaii: (20.5% chance of winning out)
2/18: at Cal State-Northridge - 86.5%
2/20: at Cal-Irvine - 57%
2/25: Cal-Riverside - 94%
2/27: Cal State-Fullerton - 95%
3/3: at Cal-Davis - 88%
3/5: at Long Beach State - 53%
Xavier: (13.0% chance of winning out)
2/20: at Georgetown - 67%
2/24: Villanova - 45%
2/28: at Seton Hall - 56%
3/5: Creighton - 77%