Does Winning Conference Tournament Lead to NCAA Tournament Success?

There was a post on Tigerboard.com discussing a quote by Bill Self where he said "We really don't care about that; the NCAA Tourney is what really matters." I responded to that post responded that 7 out of the last 10 champions were Tourney Champs. First, as with any NCAA Tournament stat, I decided to verify it and found out that the answer was 6 out of 10.

2010 Duke Yes
2009 North Carolina No
2008 Kansas Yes
2007 Florida Yes
2006 Florida Yes
2005 North Carolina No
2004 Connecticut Yes
2003 Syracuse No
2002 Maryland No
2001 Duke Yes

I went a bit further to see if winning the conference tournament was correlated with getting to the final four. I found that out of the last 40 final four teams, 18 have won their conference tournament and 22 have been at-large teams. During 4 of those years, an at-large team made the final four the same year the tourney champ from the same conference made the final four. Those teams were:

2001: Maryland - At-L; Duke - Tourney Champ
2002: Kansas - At-L; Oklahoma - Tourney Champ
2005: Michigan St - At-L; Illinois - Tourney Champ
2006: LSU - At-L; Florida - Tourney Champ

So adjusting for these years, that leaves 18 at-larges and 18 tourney champs. In conclusion, winning the conference tournament has no correlation on whether a team will make it to the final four or not.

Top NCAA Tournament Conferences

As the Big East gets ready to enter a possible record 11 teams in the NCAA Tournament, I thought I would take a look back at how the various conferences have done in recent NCAA Tournament History. For recent, I choose a nice round number (2000). Since 2000, here are the conferences with the most wins in the tournament:

1. Big East 104
2. Big Twelve 97
3. ACC 96
4. Big Ten 92
5. SEC 74
6. Pac Ten 73

It is no surprise that the Big East has had the most wins. This is for two reasons. First, the Big East has 16 teams and because of that has more potential teams in the tournament each year. The second reason is that the Big East has been the best conference in recent history.

However, when we look at tournament win percentage, the story is a little different.

1. ACC .653
2. Big Twelve .618
3. Big Ten .613
4. Big East .608
5. Pac Ten .589
6. SEC .565

So although the Big East has been one of the best conferences, they haven't been the best overall tournament conference. When you get 7+ teams in every year, there are going to be some that lose in the first round which will make the win percentage lower.

Next is the number of Final Four appearances by Conference.

1. ACC 10
2. Big Ten 9
3. Big Twelve 6
Big East 6
5. SEC 4
Pac Ten 4

The ACC is the top conference again. The Big Ten is helped by Michigan State going to 5 Final Fours since 2000.

The Big Twelve is third, but they have had the most opportunities. Here is the number of Elite Eight appearances by Conferences.

1. Big Twelve 18
2. Big East 13
Big Ten 13
4. ACC 11
5. Pac Ten 10
6. SEC 9

And it hasn't been just one school in the Big Twelve that has been the source of those 18 appearances. The Big Twelve also leads with the most schools making an Elite Eight appearance since 2000 while the ACC has been dominated by just a few schools. Here is the number of schools making Elite Eight since 2000.

1. Big Twelve 8
2. Big East 7
3. Big Ten 6
4. SEC 5
Pac Ten 5
6. ACC 4

And finally the ultimate measure of success is number of championships. Here are the number of national championships by conference since 2000.

1. ACC 5
2. SEC 2
Big East 2
4. Big Twelve 1
Big Ten 1

In Summary, the tournament has been dominated by the Big 6 (BCS) Conferences since 2000. No team outside of those conferences has won a National Championship in that time frame although Memphis and Butler came very close. In addition, the SEC and Pacific Ten have performed well below the other four conferences in almost every category (except for Florida's two National Championships).

Final Four Droughts - Part II

Michigan State will be going to the Final Four for the 6th time in the last 12 years. In that same time frame, Kentucky has not been to a Final Four. This is for a school that has been to 13 Final Fours overall (which is tied for 4th all-time).

Out of the 5 schools that have been to at least 13 final fours, UCLA has the longest all-time drought at 14 years, so Kentucky will need to make the Final Four in one of the next two seasons to keep from passing them. Here are the biggest droughts for the teams with the most Final Fours.

Team FF's 1st Longest Drought
North Carolina 18 1946 10 years (1947-1956)
UCLA 18 1962 14 years (1981-1994)
Duke 15 1963 11 years (1967-1977)
Kansas 13 1940 13 years (1958-1970)
Kentucky 13 1942 12 years (1999-2010)*
Ohio State 10 1939 30 years (1969-1998)
Indiana 8 1940 19 years (1954-1972)
Louisville 8 1959 18 years (1987-2004)
Michigan State 8 1957 21 years (1958-1978)

Final Four Droughts

Tomorrow, Michigan State will be trying for their second consecutive Final Four and their 6th in the last 12 years. However, the other seven schools in the Elite Eight have not tasted as much success when it comes to the Final Four (at least lately).

Traditional powers, Duke and Kentucky both have many Final Fours on their resume. Kentucky has been to 13 while Duke has been to 14. However, Kentucky is currently in the middle of their longest Final Four drought in school history. It has been 12 years since Kentucky has last been to the Final Four. Before this current drought, the longest stretch in which Kentucky went without a Final Four had been 8 years (1967 to 1974 and again 1985 to 1992).

Duke has not been too the Final Four since 2004. They have seen longer droughts in school history, but the last time that they went 5 straight tournaments without a Final Four before this current drought was when they missed the Final Four from 1979 to 1985 (7 years).

Out of the other 5 teams in the Elite Eight, none have been to the Final Four since 1964. Kansas State last went in 1964, West Virginia last went in 1959 and Baylor's last Final Four was in 1950. Butler and Tennessee have never been to the Final Four.

Since 1944 (the first time a team made its second final four appearance), only twice in history has there ever been a Final Four in which every participant ended a more than ten-year drought or was making its first appearance. Those years were 1959 and 1979. Here is a summary of the teams and the year's since their prior appearance.

1979
Michigan State - 22 years
DePaul - 36 years
Indiana State - First appearance
Penn - First appearance

1959
California - 13 years
Cincinnati - First appearance
Louisville - First appearance
West Virginia - First appearance

If West Virginia, Tennessee and Baylor win today and tomorrow, it will be the third time in history that it has happened.

At-Large Bids

Texas will be making their 12th consecutive tournament appearance which will be tied for 4th longest current streak. However, with the loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, they have still never won a Big 12 Tournament. Each one of their last 12 tournament appearances (including this year's) have been at-large bids which extends their own record. Below is a list of the longest streaks of At-Large Bids all-time:

• Texas 11 (1999-2009)
• Indiana 10 (1994-2003)
• Louisiana State 10 (1984-1993)
• Marquette 10 (1971-1980)
• Maryland 10 (1994-2003)
• Michigan State 9 (2001-2009)
• Temple 9 (1991-1999)
• Notre Dame 8 (1974-1981)
• Arizona 7 (2003-2009)

All Good Things Must Come to an End

Today Georgia Tech defeated North Carolina 62-58 in the first round of ACC Tournament. Earlier UCLA knocked off Arizona 75-69 in the Pac Ten Quarterfinals. As a result, two long tournament streaks will come to an end this year.

The last time that Roy Williams missed the tournament was in 1989. He was a rookie coach with Kansas. They finished 19-12 that year, but were ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to violations after winning the 1988 National Championship. His streak will end at 20. His streak will end up being the third longest all time. Lute Olson and Dean Smith both coached in 23 consecutive tournaments. Smith coached from 1975 to 1997 and Olson coached from 1985 to 2007. Mike Krzyzewski is now the current leader making his 15th consecutive appearance this year.

Arizona's run of 25 straight appearances will come to an end this year. They started their run in 1985 in Lute Olson's second season in Arizona. Before their current run, Arizona had a grand total of 3 tournament appearances and 2 wins. Arizona's streak is the second longest all-time falling two short of North Carolina's run from 1974-2001. Kansas is now the current leader making their 21st consecutive appearance this year.

More expansion talk - Is it a done deal?

In December, I blogged about possible expansion in the NCAA Tournament. On Monday, some sources were reporting that expansion is a "Done Deal". I personally think it is a bad idea. The tournament is perfect the way it is. I understand why they went to 65 teams, but no one even watches the "play-in" game. 64 teams is the perfect number.

Expanding the tournament adds logistic problems. If the tournament expands to 96 teams, either there will need to be games played on Tuesday and Wednesday or an additional week will need to be added to the tournament. If games are played on Tuesday or Wednesday, that will present problems if the bracket is announced on Sunday night. I don't think it is enough time for teams and fans to make plans to travel to the sights and the attendance at those games will be awful.

If an extra week is added, then to get to 64 teams, you would have 32 teams with byes have an entire week off. In addition, it would add an extra week to the season either on the front end or the back end. If it is on the back end, the season would not end until mid April. March Madness would be a thing of the past. April Anxiety anyone? If it is added on the front end, conference games would need to begin in mid-December and the season would need to start around November 1. I don't know about you, but I like most college fans are thinking about college football at that time.

In the current format, top seeds have almost always advanced beyond the first round. No #1 seeds have ever been defeated in the first round and only 4 #2 seeds have lost. If the field is expanded, expect this to change. These high seeds will be facing much stiffer competition on a neutral court with the other team having already played a tournament game. When the field was 48 teams, many top seeds lost in the second round after they had first round byes.

Whether this is inevitable or not remains to be seen, but here are some others thoughts about expansion:

• Andy Katz on Expansion - He states that there are many involved in this decision and it is not a done deal. The NCAA has a right to opt out of CBS's contract which has 3 years left and has asked others what they would be interested in if they expanded. He also talks about how the power conference tournaments would become meaningless with a 96-team tournament.
• Lindsey Willhite says "Not so fast". He like many others believe it is a bad idea.
• Jeff Goodman states that the NCAA is still looking at expansion, but no decision has been made.
• Steve Wieberg shares the opinion of college administrators and coaches.
• Ryan Terpstra wonders what else NCAA would like to ruin.

And once again when the tournament expands, the Onion will have coverage.